AMU Europe Homeland Security Intelligence Opinion

Russian Military Aircraft Exercises Near Europe Sharply Rise

By William Tucker
Chief Correspondent for In Homeland Security

On Wednesday NATO remarked that it had witnessed an unusual increase in Russian military flights near the borders of several European nations. In one case, several Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers flew along the coasts of Norway, UK, Portugal, and Spain before heading back to Russia. During the Cold War such activities between the Soviet Union and NATO were common place, but Russian strategic flights have resumed over the past decade with the U.S. reporting over-flights in Guam and other far flung military installations. The activity in the last year, however, has been the most active by far since the resumption of such flights. Another differing aspect to these strategic flights is the accompaniment of refueling tankers and fighter escorts. Though these have occurred on a few occasions in the last decade this may be the largest contingent to skirt the European coast since the Cold War. Elsewhere, NATO reported increased Russian flights by fighter aircraft over the Black Sea. This isn’t exactly abnormal as Russia has maintained its Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol, Crimea, but the size and proximity of the flights to NATO member nations in the region is certainly notable. Again, these flights have been occurring with regularity, however the size and frequency is the primary difference.

With Russia so heavily engaged in fighting alongside the rebels in Eastern Ukraine it isn’t necessarily unusual to probe the airspace and territorial waters of NATO member nations as a way to gauge readiness and resolve. Moscow will likely continue to do so as long as it is militarily engaged in Ukraine. Russia has already managed to throw its western neighbor into chaos and seize the Crimean Peninsula, but it does have its sights set on other locales such as the Baltic states and Moldova. Since NATO, and the wider global community, has been reluctant to counter Russian hostilities with anything more than mild sanctions, Moscow will continue to take action ensuring that the lack of any meaningful response will remain the status quo. This approach isn’t without pitfalls, however. Non-NATO member Sweden has seen a recent upswing in public support for joining NATO. The inability of the Swedish air force to intercept Russian aircraft that had entered their airspace for an extended period was embarrassing to the government and the concern over Russian military activity was exemplified with the response to the alleged incursion of a Russian submarine into Swedish waters. Moscow has been concerned in the past with former Eastern Bloc nations joining NATO, but the inclusion of a more developed military such as Sweden would not be a welcome development in the eyes of the Kremlin.

In conjunction with the Military exercises several NATO members have reported increases in Russian intelligence activities in the form of on the ground personnel, off shore technical intelligence collection platforms, and cyber intrusions. Taken together it appears Moscow desires to make its aggressive posture permanent. As previously stated, Russia has many reasons to keep tabs on NATO activities and possible responses to Russia’s more territorial ambitions, but there is another reason – Russia needs to have assets in place should NATO become more aggressive in pushing back against Moscow’s activities in Europe. There is also an intimidation factor in this posture as well. Smaller, former members of the Eastern Bloc have much to fear in regards to Russia and, as targeted states usually do, they don’t feel their concerns are adequately addressed by NATO. That being said, the situation with Russia is still evolving and a resolution is unlikely in the near term, but it is not too late for NATO to craft a more effective response. Though conventional, strategic responses in kind are available, it’s really time for more aggressive covert action against Moscow.

IMG_0924.PNG Photo: Washington Post

William Tucker serves as a senior security representative to a major government contractor where he acts as the Counterintelligence Officer, advises on counterterrorism issues, and prepares personnel for overseas travel. His additional duties include advising his superiors in matters concerning emergency management and business continuity planning.

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